Analyst predicts 360 to stay on top, PSP to take the lead thru 2007
by James Ransom-Wiley 
{ Jan 24th 2006 at 3:30PM }
UBS lead game analyst, Mike Wallace, offered
his predictions for the next two years in US hardware sales. Wallace believes that Microsoft's early start will pay
off, and despite only selling 607,000 units in 2005, the Xbox 360 creator will resolve its manufacturing issues and
move roughly 4 million units by the end of the year. By contrast, the USB analyst predicts that the PlayStation 3 and
Revolution will sell only 1 million units apiece by the end of 2006.And looking further into the future, Wallace forecasts that the early lead will continue to pay off for Microsoft, predicting in excess of 10 million Xbox 360s sold, compared to roughly 7 million PS3s sold, through 2007. He added that the installed user base of the Revolution should top 3 million by that time. By 2010, Wallace estimates that a combined 52 million next-gen units will have been sold.
Similar to predictions expressed in the SIG report, Wallace sees PSP sales—spurred by a price cut—surpassing DS sales by 5 million units in 2007. However, the analyst does believe that the GBA will maintain its lead in the portable market through the end of this year. Finally, Wallace foresees the combined installed user base of PSPs & DSs climbing to 43 million by the end of 2009.
[Thanks, Fuzz]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Andrew @ Jan 24th 2006 3:34PM
why are these people even allowed to make predictions on this industry
Carlos @ Jan 24th 2006 3:35PM
The Xbox 360 has no shot of outselling the ps3. The ps3 will play blu-ray dvds out of the box. It will be the cheapest blu-ray player on the market. This feature alone will allow it to outsell xbox360, even if they didnt' realize a single video game. That analyst is an idiot. Thanks very kindly.
Ryan @ Jan 24th 2006 3:38PM
Heh...I guess these people have to make a living somehow. I wish there was a website that kept record of all these predictions and who made them so that when the time came, we could see how accurate each source was.
Observer @ Jan 24th 2006 3:40PM
I can understand the PSP/DS predictions being made since these units out there and its possible to gauge the market reaction to these products, but how can he possibly give reasonable sales predictions about the PS3 and Revo?
falcon @ Jan 24th 2006 3:45PM
bull
Spence @ Jan 24th 2006 3:47PM
They can suck the Nintendo fanboy's collective balls.
Har hardy har.
[/parody]
Ritz @ Jan 24th 2006 3:50PM
I would love to know how these guys make these predictions... obviously, someone is way out of the loop. It may be wishful thinking to think Revolution will do amazingly well, but common, just 3 million by 2007? If your looking at current polls, that number doesnt make any sense at all, and if your not, what are you basing your prediction on? Nintendo hasn't so much as unvieled screens for a single game yet, let alone how said game might be controlled. People are pulling idea's out of thier arse based on the current generation, me thinks. And considering how the 360 has bombed in Japan, I don't see how it could stay on top.
mcloki @ Jan 24th 2006 3:52PM
360 still needs a killer game. Most likely Halo 3. But most of those guys have already bought a 360. Revolution is going to make big strides if it is cheap. Dirt cheap and has online. The only way 360 will outsell PS3 is if Sony doesn't make as many.
yjs @ Jan 24th 2006 3:52PM
And why does Joystiq keep on posting them?
Holland Wood @ Jan 24th 2006 3:54PM
It appears that though Microsoft can pay off everyone, including the media (sans withstanding company), they can't pay off consumers to buy this piece of crap. Nobody bought, because nobody wanted.
BS Police @ Jan 24th 2006 3:54PM
Gosh where did they get these crazy numbers from? I wonder how much they got paid by Microsoft to come up with this BS.
Pretty Obvious @ Jan 24th 2006 4:00PM
This guy prob hit it right on the dot. Blu-Ray will have no effect whatsoever on the PS3's sales. Regular DVD players are just hitting the affordable price range (sub 50 dollars). People are not about to jump into a new form of media. Sorry to burst your bubble.
SuicideNinja @ Jan 24th 2006 4:02PM
Seems to me that the analysts can't make up their minds. One second they say DS, the next they say PSP. Same with the 360 and PS3.
As far as the DS and the PSP, I can't really say. I don't enjoy much from either system right now to have an opinion.
I'd love to see Microsoft pull ahead; they seem to be putting a lot of positive effort into making their console a great system. XBL is paving the way to a better gaming experience overall. Can't wait to download the Full Auto demo tomorrow.
Judging from production in the past, this analyst may actually be along the right lines of thinking. However, I would give Sony more "units sold" credit, assuming they launch earlier than November.
For some reason, I foresee the PS3 being seen mistakeningly as "better" system because it comes out later. Which is strange because the original Xbox came out later, is a much better system, but gamers are still attached to their slow and dated PS2s. I would give the Gamecube the same praise as well, but it lacks supported online features and good Third party titles. Maybe this trend will continue to the "Next Generation"? I'm still predicting that Sony and Microsoft will be head to head in sales.
I think Nintendo will be more of a contender this time as well. They "get" that power isn't everything. Apparently, too many gamers think that the PS2 is great even though it is the weakest system available right now, and the games really show it (loading...loading....loading....).
diarmuid bourke @ Jan 24th 2006 4:05PM
Hahaha, head meet arse. That's what these guys were doing. We will be hearing about the next-next-gen consoles tommorow.
TMoney @ Jan 24th 2006 4:08PM
He Carlos, and all other tech geeks,
In the world that the average comsumer lives in, NO ONE CARES about blu-ray or HD-DVD. We don't have HD tvs. The diffence in quality on standard tvs is ZERO. Who is going to rush to buy a PS3 with Blu-Ray out of the box? Anyone who is that into tech stuff will probably buy a stand alone player for the extra features. The PS3 blu-ray will be the most basic player you can get. Remember how crappy the PS2 dvd player was? The reason it was so succesful is that the average consumer could see a big difference in quality ON THEIR TV, from vhs. DVD also had the advantage of being a disc that was not subject to the degradation over time that tapes were. I'm sorry but I can't see the average consumer going out and buying a new HD TV just for Blu-Ray. The difference in quality just isn't as big of a jump as from vhs to dvd. Mabye in a few years Blu-Ray will be important, but by then stand-alone players will be much less than a PS3. Blu-Ray in a PS3 is just not the same as DVD in the PS2.
pr0cs @ Jan 24th 2006 4:21PM
Yes, I really trust an anal-yst regarding what will be selling this and next year. His numbers for the revolution look about right though.
Michael @ Jan 24th 2006 4:34PM
O.K.
Now I know there's alot of Sony fanboys out there who are just "itching" to go off on some of these predictions. But since we're all just sitting around making predictions here's a few of mine:
1.) Xbox 360 will do "good" here in the U.S. However, it will (obviously) struggle overseas (especially in Japan). MS will finally kick it into gear this spring and start mass producing even more consoles for all the people who missed out on it this past Christmas. However, some buyers will wait for the PS3 and see what the launch price will be. But, this fall's gaming line-up will help generate interest in the Xbox 360 as games will steadily improve. Also, Halo 3 will be "waiting in the wings."
2.) Nintendo Revolution will do "surprisingly" very well world-wide. With classic hits, re-makes, and new titles of Mario Bros. and Zelda, Nintendo will carve a nice little spot into consumers hearts (and wallets).
3.) The PS3 will "finally"" be released in Japan this summer and by Thanksgiving here in the U.S. Initial stock will be low due to the high demand. However, the PS3 launch price will be $499.99, which may steer some potential buyers over to the Xbox 360 or to (the much more affordable) Nintendo Revolution.
4.) Nintendo DS will continue to sell at a somewhat steady pace. However, Nintendo will suprise some people by cutting prices of the DS by this upcoming holiday season.
5.) The PSP sales will drop some, mainly due to consumers awaiting the release of Sony's PS3. Sony will try to counter this drop in sales by possibly trying to lower the pricing in PSP movies (UMD) And what's with Sony and their Blu-Ray DVDs, their UMD DVDs, etc, etc, etc......
and finally,
6.) The games that will do surprisingly well in sales this year will be games based on classic movies such as Scarface and The Godfather. This will prompt more companies to look into getting movie licences so that more games can be made based from movies.
BTW, I own an Xbox 360, and I'm very pleased with it (although most people on this blog seem to "bash" it).
Peace.
Fuzz @ Jan 24th 2006 4:37PM
I liked my Headline better:
"Another blowhard analyst talks out his ass"
I guess it wasn't suited to the front page :P
Ceric @ Jan 24th 2006 4:40PM
Ok this is a little silly like all of the predictions so far. Even with a price cut I don't see the PSP globally beating the DS. Unless games are outlawed. The 360... I don't see it keeping a lead either. The Rev is a wildcard. You can't really predict it. It's either going to do really well or really bad. The PS3 on the other hand take how it went last generation and how the PS2 is still selling I can beleive that it could become the market leader. Though ironically enough predicting that there will be sold 1 million PS3's by the end of 2006 is sort of funny. I think somewhere Sony announced they were only going to make a million PS3 in 2006.
Jason W @ Jan 24th 2006 4:45PM
Lets look at it this way, If the PS3 shipps in the US in November by the end of the year they will have sold 400K more than the 360 in the same amount of time. Now with a price drop and the supply line clearing up the 360 will continue to sell well (sorry but 600K in a month kicks ass. To bad they didnt make more of them for the US or this number could have been trippled) I dont see with a years head start and a constant supply line vs the ps3 and one year in distribution how these numbers could be far off. Now who wins after 2008 is up in the air.
Zsavior @ Jan 24th 2006 4:46PM
Listen I remember when sega dreamcast came out people said things like Sega was just bought by nintendo in new papers, these analyst can easily be bought, and paid for. I notice every analyst that comes out says the same things, MS is going to beat sony with the xbox 360 and PSP is going to beat DS.
Why, because they have to look good, those were the two systems that were acclaimed before their launch to "REVOLUTIONIZE" everything, and now they are doing shitty. The Sad part is if gaming journalism had any integrity people wouldn't listen to these idiots because The Game Magazines would be the mouth of gaming business and news.These analyst are a joke, they are trying to force their predictions, if they keep saying it people will believe it and automatically buy a 360 or PSP. I especially like the prediction of a PSP price cut! LOL Yes If he PSP cuts its prices what will the DS do? As for the 360 it is the end of january and there is still a shortage, do these analyst really under estimate sony that much?
jd @ Jan 24th 2006 4:59PM
If the ps3 and revolution release in nov. I think his prediction could actually be pretty accurate. The article says US hardware sales only and surely there will be the same supply shortages for the ps3 and revolution that plauged the 360 launch. You also have to remember MSFT has 11 months to hit the 4 Million number compared to 6-8 weeks left in the year for the sony and nintendo launches.
Jeramy @ Jan 24th 2006 5:10PM
is it ubs or usb? you have both in the article
portnoy @ Jan 24th 2006 5:23PM
"sorry but 600K in a month kicks ass"
Thats funny. 600K at launch over the holiday season is TERRIBLE. Only a fanboy could disagree. Obviously if MS had more consoles to sell, it would have sold them but dont fool yourself. 600K in 05 is a dismal number. The gamecube outsold the 360 in december for christs sake. The original xbox outsold the 360 in its launch by a healthy margin and nobody had even heard of it then. MS fucked up the supply line somehow and it could cost them their first to market advantage if they aren't careful.
Matters @ Jan 24th 2006 5:33PM
This just in: Analyst full of shit. News at 11.
bd @ Jan 24th 2006 5:50PM
PSP won't take the lead unless UMD prices drop below that of DVDs (since that's all they are worth) and/or it has some must have games. The games on it are pretty mediocre, face it. I own one, and Infected is too repetitive. Everything else is a port of a console game.
The DS has plenty of must-have games, both out now and out soon; even more to come, since it is so cheap to develop for, that who doesn't want to develop on it anyway?
I predict that revolution will do much better than what "analysts" are predicting, just as the DS is doing right now; I should buy one soon.
PS3 will do fine (although not as good as PS2), since a lot of people will buy it just because it is a PlayStation (like the PSP), or because they don't want to pay for playing online. Despite the "pretty obvious" statements, people will want PS3's Blu-ray because it'll be a steal: "A console and a blu-ray for a third of their price combined? Where do I sign?". High Definition TVs are starting to replace SDTVs, and soon nobody will want their movies to look like shit because their TVs happen to have more potential than displaying a low res movie. Who knows, maybe at some point, the 360 will not even be enough because it won't display 1080p.
By 2010 there will be less than 60 million? How so? That's less than half of what this generation still is.
Oh, and someone above downplayed the DVD playability on PS2. I'd love to know how "crappy" the DVD player on PS2 is, as opposed to any other DVD player; nice try on dealing with damage control on the 360, by the way.
dsub @ Jan 24th 2006 5:59PM
I completely agree with #17.
I also agree that yes, MS did screw up by not having enough consoles to sell, but I look at it like this. Because of the fact that MS launched worldwide simultaneously, you can't look at the numbers of other consoles launches for US sales and compare them to the 360. The worldwide launch puts this launch in a class of it's own. When the XBOX launched it launched in america ONLY. The real number to look at is the 1.3 million that have been sold worldwide. Because had MS followed in the others footsteps, and done regional launches over an extended time table like everyone else, and launched in the U.S. only and held off until spring to launch in europe and japan, they would have sold all those 1.3 million consoles here in the states, and no one would be making these comparisons to other consoles, it's as simple as that. Microsoft's main problem right now is figuring out a way to increase production.
"It appears that though Microsoft can pay off everyone, including the media (sans withstanding company), they can't pay off consumers to buy this piece of crap. Nobody bought, because nobody wanted."
Then how did this "piece of crap" that supposedly "nobody wanted" get people to line up 2 maybe even 3 times overnight to buy it? Why are there still 50+ of 100 preorders at my local EB? Those people could pull out anytime if they really dont want this thing. Why is microsoft selling EVERY single console they manufacture? Why can't you just walk into a store and buy one? Oh yea, it's because no one wants it. Sure thing buddy.
In regards to the analysis, I disagree on 3 counts.
1. The PSP will not outsell the DS unless they drop the price to $150 or less and get some better games for it.
2. The 360 and PS3 will see near even sales until maybe 2008-2009, because until then, when a substantial number of people will finally have HDTV's (we are still at less than 50% of homes here in the states, and obviously blu-ray is only going to be an advantage to those who own HD sets and can afford $30+ movies) Until then the blu-ray drive will not be an advantage at all, especially at a price of $500+ at launch. (Let's face it people, Next gen media formats are not going to start selling by the masses for AT LEAST 3 years, look how long it took DVD to catch on...almost 5 years...1997-2001/02).
3. The revolution will see much better sales then this guy predicted, especially if the controller is a success.
kuroshi @ Jan 24th 2006 6:00PM
Sorry but it's not the first analyst to say so. Analyst predictions are based on fairly extensive research and business math. It should not be colored by personal taste, fanboyism, or just hatred towards a company. Many people who could care less about video games, invest large sums of money in these companies. Wall street rises and falls on many of the predictions that analyst make. He may be wrong, nobody knows the future. His guess is much better than yours however. Yours is colored by your own taste. You insist that ps3 or rev will win and you haven't see a working system yet. No playable games. No production capability. Nothing of any quantitative value. The first mover adv. will help. Approval to sell in china could be huge. It took ps2 over 2 years to get it. Approval for india could also help. 2 growing economies with large pop. they could have a temp. exclusive. Ps3 price could hurt it. You care about systems, but most consumers do not. they may be unwilling to pay the premium for what they see as the same thing. Rev will not win without 3rd party support, which they currently do not have. Most major titles have announced for ps3 and 360. Rev has interest from dev but few signed contracts. Your average consumer just wants to play what everyone else is playing if you don't have it they will just buy something else. The 360 has a chance to lead the next gen because they all do. No one thought sony would sell with the ps1 and of course not more than nin. from the #1 spot that seemed kinda silly. There are no absolutes in business. Leadership has changed position time and time again. It will continue to do so. That's what pushes the industry forward.
dsub @ Jan 24th 2006 6:14PM
I thought I should also add, that I too have a 360, and it works fine...contrary to popular belief, as does everyone elses I know, and I love it.
I do also agree with #27, he made some good points. Gamers or not, these guys are definately not one thing...fanboys. China would also be a huge help...especially if WoW is ever released on 360.
"Thats funny. 600K at launch over the holiday season is TERRIBLE. Only a fanboy could disagree. Obviously if MS had more consoles to sell, it would have sold them but dont fool yourself. 600K in 05 is a dismal number. The gamecube outsold the 360 in december for christs sake. The original xbox outsold the 360 in its launch by a healthy margin and nobody had even heard of it then. MS fucked up the supply line somehow and it could cost them their first to market advantage if they aren't careful."
I agree, that MS screwed up by not having made enough consoles, but I disagree in that...
The 360's launch is unlike any other in history. They launched worldwide, so therefore it is unfair to compare there total sales in the U.S. to that of other consoles in there first month. Because lets face it, had MS launched only here in November and in Europe and Japan in the spring, they would have sold all those 1.3 million+ units that have been sold worldwide right here in the states in a heartbeat. Imagine...all those pre-orders would have been filled, more people standing in line would have gotten one. My guess is that 1.3 million would have sold in the first 24 hours, let alone first month. And instead of trashing the 360's launch numbers in the states, we'd be praising them. You simply cannot compare this launch to any other, unless you look at the whole picture worldwide.
Chance @ Jan 24th 2006 6:45PM
Joystiq, please PLEASE stop with this analyst BS. I can't think of ONE that predicted that the DS would handily outsell the PSP. This is garbage.
Here's my prediction:
The DS will go on to be the hotest selling console in history. The Revolution will actually do much better than GC or N64 because of it's great "second console" appeal. The PS3 will decline in market share (it has no room to go up), and the Xbox360 will become quite a force in the States while being completely ignored in Japan... Oh, and the GBA will go on to sell more units than the combined population of Canada and the US.
Notice that I didn't mention PSP? Yeah, I figure that Sony will drop that thing like a hot potato when the enormous losses start piling up during the PS3's initial production run. Can they really take a loss on TWO consoles at the same time? I don't think so.
Though I could be wrong about all this - I'm just an analyst.
Turkdaone @ Jan 24th 2006 6:46PM
Well first off, there are so many fanboys on here that its ridiculous!Face it.I have been a gamer for so long, but nintendo has been doing the same thing, just as long as I have been gaming almost.Yes they are very innovative I give them that, but they simply resell the same games.Am I sick of seeing mario?Sure.He plays soccer now for christs sakes.Zelda?I dont have time to wait on a couple of hits while I am gaming.But nintendo fanboys are some of the worst.They only attack when nintendo is threatened.Sony actually has the worst fanboys.Yeah they sell a hundred million systems, but has anybody wondered why?Add all the total defective systems, and the re-aquired systems and you get your numbers.Sony will never release these numbers though.And a dvd player was a great selling point for the ps2.But remember that you didnt need another tv to play dvd for good quality.The public was comparing dvd to vhs, and the quality was significantly better!Now we have blu ray.Sony just wants us to buy the same movies again and again, but will most people actually listen?Hardly.The psp plays movies at worse quality than dvds and for a higher price.It will be a shitty blu ray player in the ps3.Do you really think that sony is ready to take that much of a loss, when m$ could simply force them to release another system 5-6 years into the formats life?
Wake up guys!Theres a reason that you can go to Wal-Mart every tuesday and buy new releases for $14.00!Its because of piracy!Look at the music industry.When I was in high scholl I used to buy singles.Why?Because they actually costs 3-4$ and had the most popular song and usually the remixes.This was cut out and cd prices actually got as high as 21 dollars.Then mp3 became the thing.I dont promote piracy, but I respect it.Now you can get a new cd plus a dvd extra for around 13.00$!How is this possible.If you like to buy exspensive movies, and love to buy music with rootkits and things of that nature then support sony.Now you might be wondering about m$, well m$ is pretty good in my book.Do you actually expect an american company to have more japanese games?It will take time.If they ever ruled the gaming world then you would see the results.Since they are relatively new there isnt much I can say about them.The xbox wasnt bad, but it did lack software.Thats something thats important.Now live and stuff of this nature is the future in my opinion.Not just playing games, but the content as well.Now I expect to be criticized, what else do I expect from a group of teenagers.But if you really think that sony is here to to make great gaming cheaper, you're out of your mind.It took a software company to give us a harddrive in a gaming console!Why because sony knows that the real money comes in the accessories.How many ps2 owners do you know without a memory card?How many xbox owners do you know without a memory card?Big difference.I could go on and on about sonys lack of innovation.Now when it comes to quality nintendo rules the gaming world, always has.They do believe in a great gaming experiance, but they lack the software as well.If they could do this, then they would rule the gaming industry.I dont think that all the companies will jump ship and dev for nintendo though.Lets be realistic, even if they were extremely successful they would still not get a lot of games.Maybe the next gen after this one.When everyone adopts this controller scheme if its magnificent.But remember that the nintendo 64 brought the analog stick and nintendo was uprooted by sony.Nintendo needs to make this gamestick the requirement!Anything else and its just a peripheral that could have been shipped with the gamecube.The fuss will settle very quickly if nintendo doesn't meet these requirements.M$ needs to cover the spectrum like sony when it comes to software.They have everything kiddie games, adult themed games, the works!And believe it sony will get a lot of complaints about the ps3 when it ships.Why because every fanboy opposite sony will make sure that its known world wide.It has new tech and it might not even have a high defective rate, but guess what it will once the fanboys get through with it.How many people are crazy enough to actually move a system while playing it?But thats exactly what was done with the 360.Its error rate isnt as high as believed.I have one and I have never had any problems with the system.None of my other friends have either.I mean the 360 is more powerful than most of our home pcs, and you would think that we dont enclose our towers or put them on floors, or turn them sideways when we use them.
I will get all 3, but sony wont be able to do what it did last gen with the high number sales.Face it if we as gamers encounter disk reading errors and things like that sony will be torn a new one.
This is how I feel, and if you dont like it dont respond.Now sonys ace will be the ability to output to 1080p, but guess what if you have been reading the news lately they wont output at max resolution!This is what hollywood is trying to make standard.Hollywood doesnt want the theatres to be obsolete, hell thats taking hundreds of millions of dollars away from them.Dont be naive.but they do want the piracy to stop so that we can pay over 25.00$ for movies.Remmber its a new format.
This is what has kept sony alive.
Jed Merrill @ Jan 24th 2006 7:37PM
Not a chance. Nintendo will sell 3 million Revolution systems in 2006 alone (about 1 million in the US, Japan, and Europe each with the US and Japan leading), and ten to thirteen million by the end of 2007. This assumes the Rev comes out in November worldwide and also that the Big N can produce that many.
Sony will be lucky to do that well, at any price over $300 (most likely $399 to $499.) The DS will continue to outsell the PSP in all territories, including Japan once they get their stock back up.
As an analyst myself, I can only express my disappointment at this colleague who clearly does not understand his market.
revo4life @ Jan 24th 2006 7:45PM
no price drop for psp. they sell for a loss
the one @ Jan 24th 2006 7:47PM
By having a headstart this time around the 360 will have an advantage. Have you sony fanboys ever thought what would happen if the ps3 games dont look any better than 360s and microsoft makes the 360s price $100 lower than ps3 when it launches? Here is a hint: by that time 360 will have more games and many more people will choose it over the expensive ps3.What do you think that one of the worlds biggest companies (microsoft) is just going to give up and go away? NOT! So if you are a fanboy be afraid be very afraid. muahaha.
Superzapper40000 @ Jan 24th 2006 9:37PM
The Revolution will be out before November and probably in the second quarter and can easily sell 3 million units in 2006,Though it might not ,It is possible.There's no such thing as an Videogame analysts just people with bigger heads who think they know better than the game buying public.
AssemblyLineHuman @ Jan 24th 2006 9:42PM
I predict that all of his predictions will be wrong (except for MAYBE the GBA staying on top).
bd @ Jan 24th 2006 11:52PM
"...nintendo has been doing the same thing, just as long as I have been gaming almost.Yes they are very innovative I give them that..."
Awesome, I've never seen an argument that made so much sense.
"Am I sick of seeing mario?Sure.He plays soccer now for christs sakes.Zelda?I dont have time to wait on a couple of hits while I am gaming."
So, are you really a gamer? Or you just pretend to be because you don't want to "wait for hits"? Did you not get a gamecube because "it only has mario and zelda"? Yeah, that's what I thought; and you own an Xbox, because it has so many original, good, expected and awaited exclusives, I suppose. Let's see if you still want to be considered one after not getting Twilight Princess.
"the blu-ray drive will not be an advantage at all, especially at a price of $500+ at launch"
If it is 500, it is a steal, so it's not like too few will say "It's a steal, let's get it!". It's a new console, and a lot of people want it, and it happens to have a blu-ray reader; some will see a Blu-ray that happens to be a console; so yeah, it'll be a selling point now that we are about to enter the HD era; not the only one, but it will be.
"what would happen if the ps3 games dont look any better than 360s and microsoft makes the 360s price $100 lower than ps3 when it launches?"
Nobody cares; "it's the games, stupid!". Games will definitely look better on 1080p, but who knows, Blu-ray could even help the PS3 to do what the 360 can't.
"They launched worldwide, so therefore it is unfair to compare..."
Unfair to compare Microsoft to anything else? Yeah, right.
"Sorry but it's not the first analyst to say so. Analyst predictions are based on fairly extensive research and business math..."
Analyst predictions are based on bullshit. Business math is pretty much not so relevant, except for calculating profit made through time and meassuring sales, but analysts forget lots of things that are at least more relevant, like the upcoming games that will be the best selling point of each console, their quality, and they all just happen to think different because they all make different assumptions. Precisely because they all either disagree, or base their results on the past, not on the present let alone the future trends and knowing *anything* about the market, everyone is most likely wrong.
There are too many variables, and all these idiots forget that they know even less about the industry (in general) than a good bunch of us. Not only that, but they are not the only guys with a title, so I trust a lot more in a guy with a title and knowledge and interest in the industry, than a guy that just sits all day and takes stuff out of his ass to get his paycheck, so excuse me if I have to take a virtual dump on his prediction.
The only true things here are that people are making the transition to the "HD era", and after buying an HDTV and looking at the Blu-ray/HD-DVD prices, the PS3 will look like a bargain that happens to play games.
I have a better idea: Let's just all shut the hell up, wait and see, instead of "predicting" without no knowledge of the future whatsoever. There is always going to be an assumption and it could be false, so there's nothing we can prove (nor disprove).
the one @ Jan 25th 2006 3:20AM
to #36. For someone who thinks we should "just all shut the hell up" you sure wrote alot of shit. you are just a very eloquent chattermouth airhead you contradicted yourself so many times. I dont hate sony i have TVs and stereos from sony but PS3 is dead. just to be annoying id like to say: haha :D
Bangbang... @ Jan 25th 2006 5:45AM
how is it that BD is able to combat a good point with a reply like "yea right"
actually we all know that the ps2 had a laser that slid back and fourth on a plastic plate. eventually it would make a slight grove and cause the laser to have problems reading the faster spinning disc ie dvd's so yea it sucked.
Bangbang... @ Jan 25th 2006 6:10AM
also this is a dumb arguement. judgeing from the information that we have on the ps3 , it will be no better or wosre than the 360 or revolution. BUT it WILL outsell the 360 because its a playstation. and the avg joe doesnt care about blu ray or even know what blu ray is. what he does know is I like playstation, I like playstation 2 and I will like playstation 3,4,5,etc. So as long as developers support the 360 IM a happy man. I dont give a damn if microsoft only sells 2 consoles.
bd @ Jan 25th 2006 7:42AM
"how is it that BD is able to combat a good point with a reply like "yea right""
It wasn't even a good point, it was just damage control, that's why I said "yeah, right". Saying that "Microsoft had it hard" is even funny.
"For someone who thinks we should "just all shut the hell up" you sure wrote alot of shit. you are just a very eloquent chattermouth airhead you contradicted yourself so many times."
You didn't get the point, apparently, so let me put it the way you want it:
"An analyst bases most of his information on the past to speculate about the future, i.e. makes a lot of assumptions. A lot of analysts make different assumptions and end up with different results (so they contradict each other, and therefore can't be relied on), and the majority of them don't know the industry as good as some of the people that post at Joystiq, so they don't know better than us."
Got it?
bd @ Jan 25th 2006 7:44AM
"actually we all know that the ps2 had a laser that slid back and fourth on a plastic plate. eventually it would make a slight grove and cause the laser to have problems reading the faster spinning disc ie dvd's so yea it sucked."
I didn't say it is of the best quality. I said "it works", and it does what it has to do. If yours failed, and that makes the PS2 suck, then the 360 sucks because it bursts into flames.
Alex K. @ Jan 25th 2006 9:25AM
Analysts = on crack.
At it's price, the Revolution is going to have a way huger launch than the Gamecube, and will definatly sell more units than the xbox 360 launch.
It's being released in November, and since Nintendo actually supplies retail we'll all be able to get one.
I'm confident that I can get a Revolution without having to preorder (although I probably will so I don't have to camp out) - I like stuff delivered to my door.
Actual @ Jan 25th 2006 9:26AM
Wow BD, "then the 360 sucks because it bursts into flames".
Is the USA having 600K burning homes? NO.
Joystiq has always had its fair share of unreasonable, unlogical, and in most sense incompetent fanboys. Maybe blogs weren't supposed to have comments- it hurts.
Turkdaone @ Jan 25th 2006 11:38AM
Number 44, Thanks, At least someone is using their head!
BD if you read my posts earlier, you'll notice that I said that you didnt have to respond if you didnt agree, also you should have noticed that I dont have time to debate with a teenager.Like I said I have been gaming for quite some time, and I have an exstensive collection.I still have the reciept and box to my nes!
I love nintendo of old, but not nintendo as of late.So everything that I said still stands.I dont wanna wait for a zelda, or a mario game like once every four years.Thats absurd.Thats what the system is offering.You're the fanboy that probably thinks that resident evil4 wouldnt look better on xbox.Im just realistic.Sony was the leaders the previous gen because nintendo dropped the ball.Cartridges?For every move nintendo utilizes and makes everyone adapt, they take a step back in some other direction.They lost square enix, because of cartridges, but gave us the analog stick.They released a good system in the gamecube, but also had the mini disks and now dvd playback.Now we have the rev, and I think that the trend will continue.I wont them to suceed, but this control scheme wont be as good as you think.Its being made for the casual gamer in mind, but what about us that are not so casual?We like madden, nba live, and fighting games.I just think that nintendo will make a great use of this, but the other companies wont.I could be wrong, and its just my opinion.Sony tries to get you to buy a lot of shit.Harddrive thats not supported.Hell even the slim version runs smoother, but you cant go online with it!Multitap, even though the dreamcast had four joysticks.This is the lack of innovation that I speak of!They are a hardware company for the love of all things holy!!M$ in my opinion is just doing better in some areas, while nintendo will always be the kings of quality.
And for people saying that the gamecube is selling, well you get a game with the damn system for $99!I would hope nintendo hasnt sunk that low that they cant even move systems with a free game!In my opinion, I wont fun games, but why not have fun games and great graphics(hi def)?
This doesnt make the system bad, but damn we do buy systems for upgraded graphics.And right now whats better than hi def?You can cry all you want and make up all the excuses in the world, but I wouldnt want my console to be viewed as a second console.My system would be primary.If nintendo isnt trying to lead then why even talk about the 360 and the ps3?They are still competeing, but they know they have loyal fans.That will buy anything they sell.Nintendo 64 wasnt theleader, the gamecube wasnt the leader, but now the messiah is on the horizon I guess.Gimme a break.
These are just my opinions though.I mean are the people with either a 360 and a rev or ps3 and a rev actually gonna buy games like madden for the rev and the 360, one with enhanced features(hi def)?More than likely it will be the bang for the buck..It will be for the exclusives that are gonna have to be extremely good if they want to prosper.No resident evil 5.And who knows how much the backwards catalog is gonna be!
What if its more than 15$ or 20$?Do you really wanna spend money like that?I think thats one of the reasons that this system is offereing this catalog.The third party support isnt gonna be there.So they are gonna just tide us over with mario games and such.This isnt a bad thing though, but will it be succesful as many think?
Time will tell.Stop being an obvious fanboy over something you dont know about people.Wise men would say that its foolish to speak of a matter before you know anything about it.
bd @ Jan 25th 2006 2:10PM
"Is the USA having 600K burning homes? NO.
Joystiq has always had its fair share of unreasonable, unlogical, and in most sense incompetent fanboys. Maybe blogs weren't supposed to have comments- it hurts."
Well, if you are so competent, and you can use logic and reasoning so much, then why can't you deduct that what I said is a sarcastic analogy?
If the PS2 is shit for having a few defective units, then the 360 should be for having a few defective units; we know both are not. Only a fanboy would say that the PS2 has an inmense failure ratio compared to that of the 360; it just appears to be more since 100 million have been sold, so naturally there are more than 100 times more users that can comment on it than on the 360.
bd @ Jan 25th 2006 2:12PM
"Is the USA having 600K burning homes? NO.
Joystiq has always had its fair share of unreasonable, unlogical, and in most sense incompetent fanboys. Maybe blogs weren't supposed to have comments- it hurts."
Well, if you are so competent, and you can use logic and reasoning so much, then why can't you deduct that what I said is a sarcastic analogy?
If the PS2 is shit for having a few defective units, then the 360 should be for having a few defective units; we know both are not. Only a fanboy would say that the PS2 has an inmense failure ratio compared to that of the 360; it just appears to be more since 100 million have been sold, so naturally there are more than 100 times more users that can comment on it than on the 360.
bd @ Jan 25th 2006 2:13PM
“BD if you read my posts earlier, you'll notice that I said that you didnt have to respond if you didnt agree,”
Well, I felt compelled to respond.
“also you should have noticed that I dont have time to debate with a teenager.”
How do you know that I am not a 60 year old or a 25 year old, or in any other age group for that matter? So just because I blatantly disagree, you assume I am a teen. Well done.
“Like I said I have been gaming for quite some time, and I have an exstensive collection.I still have the reciept and box to my nes!”
Well, I also have been gaming a lot of time. I have 60 NES games, 50 SNES games, like 20 PS1 and 30 N64 games, and 25 NGC and 20 PS2 games. So I am also quite a gamer.
“I love nintendo of old, but not nintendo as of late. So everything that I said still stands.I dont wanna wait for a zelda, or a mario game like once every four years. Thats absurd.Thats what the system is offering.”
I know that’s what you said, but that’s not the only thing an NGC has. Besides, I would hardly call it “like once every four years”, since there have been two major Mario titles, and two Zelda titles (plus the upcoming Twilight Princess). The great majority of titles I own for NGC are exclusives (only three ot so aren’t), and most of them are pretty good (except that dog shit “Star Fox adventures”); and no, many of them are not made by Nintendo. I didn’t buy an Xbox because it only has 5 titles I like, and most came out after Halo 2 (Fable the Lost Chapters, Jade Empire, Ninja Gaiden Black); so I’ll get them for 360.
“You're the fanboy that probably thinks that resident evil4 wouldnt look better on xbox.”
Come on. Is it really necessary to speculate about what kind of person I am?
“Im just realistic.Sony was the leaders the previous gen because nintendo dropped the ball.Cartridges?For every move nintendo utilizes and makes everyone adapt, they take a step back in some other direction.They lost square enix, because of cartridges, but gave us the analog stick.They released a good system in the gamecube, but also had the mini disks and now dvd playback.”
I totally agree with you on this.
“Now we have the rev, and I think that the trend will continue.I wont them to suceed, but this control scheme wont be as good as you think.Its being made for the casual gamer in mind, but what about us that are not so casual?”
How about trying it before judging?
“We like madden, nba live, and fighting games.”
I think that sports games are getting the refreshment they need. I haven’t played sports games since 1994 because they haven’t changed the slightest, and I think that controller might do; for classic fighting games though, I don’t know how they are going to adapt it, unless the shell controller is used. It would be great for box games though.
“I just think that nintendo will make a great use of this, but the other companies wont.I could be wrong, and its just my opinion.”
I partially agree with you, but I don’t think that only Nintendo will do a good use of it. There might be some gimmicky “I wish I hadn’t bought it” games, but it doesn’t matter; they might as well be needed. I can’t wait for the new genres like “brain training” and how they use the remote.
“Sony tries to get you to buy a lot of shit.Harddrive thats not supported.Hell even the slim version runs smoother, but you cant go online with it!Multitap, even though the dreamcast had four joysticks.This is the lack of innovation that I speak of!They are a hardware company for the love of all things holy!!M$ in my opinion is just doing better in some areas, while nintendo will always be the kings of quality.”
I think there’s nothing to say here, you are right; I usually don’t comment on every single paragraph when I agree.
“And for people saying that the gamecube is selling, well you get a game with the damn system for $99!I would hope nintendo hasnt sunk that low that they cant even move systems with a free game!In my opinion, I wont fun games, but why not have fun games and great graphics(hi def)?”
Because they want to sell; and their philosophy is to make good products that don’t drain our wallets in order to sell more. Just like the DS. Besides, who said the graphics won’t be great? I think the N-Rev will have its share of power, and won’t have to waste so much RAM or processing power in displaying 1080p (and that’s why they “underpowered” it).
“This doesnt make the system bad, but damn we do buy systems for upgraded graphics.And right now whats better than hi def?You can cry all you want and make up all the excuses in the world, but I wouldnt want my console to be viewed as a second console.”
I don’t care how it is viewed. In fact, I think many will choose it as a *first*, and then they will decide between a 360 or a PS3. I’m getting all, by the way.
“My system would be primary.If nintendo isnt trying to lead then why even talk about the 360 and the ps3?They are still competeing, but they know they have loyal fans.That will buy anything they sell.Nintendo 64 wasnt theleader, the gamecube wasnt the leader, but now the messiah is on the horizon I guess.Gimme a break.”
I don’t care if it’s not the console of choice, just as many didn’t care for the Xbox not being the console of choice.
“These are just my opinions though.I mean are the people with either a 360 and a rev or ps3 and a rev actually gonna buy games like madden for the rev and the 360, one with enhanced features(hi def)?More than likely it will be the bang for the buck.”
Well, you never know. Maybe the Revolution sports games will be a lot more fun, so you can’t tell at the moment.
“It will be for the exclusives that are gonna have to be extremely good if they want to prosper. No resident evil 5.And who knows how much the backwards catalog is gonna be!”
There might be a resident evil for Revolution.
http://www.revolutionreport.com/index.php?act=articles&code=read&id=264
“What if its more than 15$ or 20$? Do you really wanna spend money like that?”
If the games have a “new look” as Iwata said, maybe I will buy many. If not, maybe I will buy my favorite games. I don’t think they will cost more than 10 dollars anyway (and that is probably for the N64 titles).
“ I think thats one of the reasons that this system is offereing this catalog.The third party support isnt gonna be there.”
How can you possibly tell? Sega has said several times that they like that idea, and that they are toying with it. Reggie has said that Sega loves it. Who knows, we might end up playing genesis on the revolution.
“So they are gonna just tide us over with mario games and such.This isnt a bad thing though, but will it be succesful as many think?”
If it delivers as many games, which it could, given the low costs of development, it could be. I think the DS might be something small for what to expect on the Revolution. Nintendo just has to deliver. They have shown nothing and yet everyone is drooling.
“Time will tell.”
That’s what I’ve been saying all along!
“Stop being an obvious fanboy over something you dont know about people.Wise men would say that its foolish to speak of a matter before you know anything about it.”
So I don’t know anything about this? Dude, you don’t know what I do and what I don’t know. Just because I disagree with you on some points, that doesn’t make me a fanboy. Wise men would say it’s foolish to criticize a writer by speculating for who he is and what does he know, instead of criticizing his opinion or trying to understand the message.
By the way, I didn’t mean to piss you off.
dsub @ Jan 25th 2006 2:21PM
"If it is 500, it is a steal, so it's not like too few will say "It's a steal, let's get it!". It's a new console, and a lot of people want it, and it happens to have a blu-ray reader; some will see a Blu-ray that happens to be a console; so yeah, it'll be a selling point now that we are about to enter the HD era; not the only one, but it will be."
I love how you selected one little bit of my arguement, without looking at the whole picture. Like I said, less than 50% of homes have an HDTV, now yes you can game on the PS3 on standard def, but to those without an HDTV blu-ray is USELESS. The PS3 is a steal if you compare it to the price of a standalone blu-ray player. It is not a steal if you compare it to the price of other consoles, which is what it is, another console. Another thing to add, is that I highly doubt for $500 sony is going to include an HDD. The blu-ray and cell already are making this thing expensive enough. My main point was, the PS3 is going to have large appeal to hardcore gamers because of blu-ray, and those who already have HD sets, but it is not going to have nearly as much appeal to john q. public at a price of $500, nor will it have as much appeal to those without HDTV sets. Mom and Dad could give two shits about whether or not little timmy or even teen timmy have a blu-ray player or not, especially at a price of $500. I'm telling you, besides the diehards, sony will see a backlash because of the price of the PS3. I believe this also has alot to do with why the PSP is being outsold by the DS, because at $250 it's a ripoff...and it even has that wonderful added benefit of playing it's own movie format, just like the PS3. Without John Q. Public, you have a large release and then...
My point is, blu-ray is not going to be some HUGE glorious advantage for the PS3 like so many people make it out to be until 2-3 years into the consoles life when it becomes affordable (sub-$300) By that time the 360 will still have games with on-par graphics, and a much lower price tag.
And with the 1080p shit, please, that is in NO WAY an advantage, and you know it. Sure the system has the potential to deliver 1080p visuals, but do you actually believe the games will be done in 1080p? Hell no, they'll all be upscaled from 720p or 1080i because that is what the VAST majority of displays can handle. Virtually NO ONE owns a 1080p set. Even now, when there just starting to hit the market they go for upwards of $3000. So how is it an advantage if practically no one can take advantage of it?
bd @ Jan 25th 2006 7:01PM
“I love how you selected one little bit of my arguement, without looking at the whole picture.”
I’m sorry, but I would have taken a long time to reply to every single one of the posters in the thread. You sound alienated, just take it easy.
“Like I said, less than 50% of homes have an HDTV, now yes you can game on the PS3 on standard def, but to those without an HDTV blu-ray is USELESS.”
Well, in the close future, HDTV will replace SDTV; it will reach 1080p resolution and even surpass it. Besides, you can record both HDTV and SDTV on Blu-ray discs and then play them on your PS3; I know it sounds useless once you have a BD-Recorder, but you can lend them to your friends. Then again, that sounds like streaming content to your 360 so it can stream to your TV when you can stream it directly to your TV. The point is, you can still use Blu-ray for SDTV, and it could work perfectly for fitting a whole SDTV trilogy like lord of the rings, or better yet, TV series, which have already been announced; the Blu-ray spec permits 480 resolutions, so hopefully it will be used.
Even if it isn’t it is not “USELESS” even if it is to you, because many will see it cheap and will want it; it works for many, maybe it doesn’t for you. Many that have an HDTV will want it, or many will say “hey, I’ll buy one for when I get an HDTV! It happens to play games anyway!”. Nobody said that the 6 billion humans will see something good in that, but maybe 10 million will want it for that reason. After all, the 100 million PS2 consoles weren’t sold solely for its DVD playback, but quite a lot of people did want it for that. If it was the only reason people wanted a PS2 for, then the Xbox 1.0 would have sold a lot more than it did.
“ The PS3 is a steal if you compare it to the price of a standalone blu-ray player. It is not a steal if you compare it to the price of other consoles, which is what it is, another console.”
I happen to disagree. The Xbox 360 is a toy, the revolution is a toy. Both offer fun, except the revolution offers new inputs for a cheaper price, while the 360 offers HD graphics on games for a premium. The PS3 happens to play games like a console, but it is also a Blu-ray player, the first and only console to play High Definition movies from next-gen discs.
“Another thing to add, is that I highly doubt for $500 sony is going to include an HDD.”
Well, you may doubt it, but it is true. Yeah, Sony won’t include it :( it was taken off due to huge costs.
“The blu-ray and cell already are making this thing expensive enough. My main point was, the PS3 is going to have large appeal to hardcore gamers because of blu-ray, and those who already have HD sets, but it is not going to have nearly as much appeal to john q. public at a price of $500, nor will it have as much appeal to those without HDTV sets. Mom and Dad could give two shits about whether or not little timmy or even teen timmy have a blu-ray player or not, especially at a price of $500.”
”
On that part, I partially agree. I think it will be more appealing to John Doe now that HD is being massively advertised. I can’t prove that, but neither can you, so we’ll see.
“ I'm telling you, besides the diehards, sony will see a backlash because of the price of the PS3.”
You might be right, but we have to see. Who knows, maybe enough High Definition people and hardcore gamers will buy it in order for it to get the first price drop.
“ I believe this also has alot to do with why the PSP is being outsold by the DS, because at $250 it's a ripoff...and it even has that wonderful added benefit of playing it's own movie format, just like the PS3. Without John Q. Public, you have a large release and then...”
I agree with you. I own a PSP, but when I see the price of games I’m disgusted. It’s a god damned portable, not a console, so I buy very few games (compared to consoles). I should have waited for it to get good games at least, so I’ll get a DS soon. At least if the damned movies were cheaper; Sony should have made it a portable DVD player that happened to play games. That way it would have been very appealing to the whole crowd; that and adding more buttons. Anyway, once it gets the good games (if it ever does), I don’t think it will be such a ripoff.
“My point is, blu-ray is not going to be some HUGE glorious advantage for the PS3 like so many people make it out to be until 2-3 years into the consoles life when it becomes affordable (sub-$300) By that time the 360 will still have games with on-par graphics, and a much lower price tag. “
I think they will always have “on-par” graphics; the only advantage will be the games. And the extra features, like Blu-ray of course. I know Blu-ray is not as appealing as DVD was in the SDTV era, but also take in mind that it is one of the first Blu-ray players, significantly cheaper than the standalone, and when the PS2 came out, a lot of DVD players were out, and it was significantly cheaper, so a considerable amount people already had a DVD player, which reduced the market; like a trade-off. “Not everyone has an HDTV set, but we (Sony) have the first and cheapest Blu-ray player in the market, so that should compensate, if not totally, at least partially”. It’s a matter of waiting and seeing how appealing it is.
“And with the 1080p shit, please, that is in NO WAY an advantage, and you know it.”
Well, it is certainly above 1080i. Not like it matters much, since it will take a little while till everyone adopts that standard, but it’s good that it is future proof. Let’s say it’s a gimmick, but it’s something anyway.
“Sure the system has the potential to deliver 1080p visuals, but do you actually believe the games will be done in 1080p? Hell no, they'll all be upscaled from 720p or 1080i because that is what the VAST majority of displays can handle. Virtually NO ONE owns a 1080p set. Even now, when there just starting to hit the market they go for upwards of $3000. So how is it an advantage if practically no one can take advantage of it?”
Well, some people can take an advantage of it, and good for them. As you said though, I don’t think many games will be optimized to run at 1080p, because that would be very costly for developers, unless the 360 supported the same resolution (which would still make it expensive, but less expensive since they would be doing the same amount of work for both consoles instead of more for just one console).